A new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) indicates that Donald J. Trump leads among Republican likely voters in the California primary with 38% of the vote, while Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has half of that support, with 19%.
The poll, which concluded Mar. 15, also showed Marco Rubio and John Kasich with 12% each. However, respondents were also asked whom they would support if Rubio dropped out. Trump’s support remains the same at 38%, while Cruz jumps to 27%, and Kasich rises to 14%. The margin of error is wide — 6.2% for Democrats, 7.3% for Republicans.
On the Democratic side, the race is tighter, with Hillary Clinton at 48% support, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at 41%.
Trump and Cruz have led polls in California for months. However, statewide polling is of limited value in the June 7 California primary, where delegates will largely be won by congressional district.
The poll also reports that California Attorney General Kamala Harris still leads the race to replace retiring liberal Democrat Barbara Boxer:
Among the candidates, Kamala Harris, Democratic state attorney general, has 26 percent support, followed by Loretta Sanchez, Democratic member of Congress, with 17 percent. Tom Del Beccaro, former chairman of the state Republican Party, has 9 percent and Duf Sundheim, also a former Republican Party chair, has 6 percent. Republican Ron Unz entered the race after the survey was completed. The top two vote getters in the June primary will advance to the November election.
However, Sanchez leads among Latinos, with 36% to Harris’s 22%.
The El Niño rains seem to have had an effect, with water declining to the second-most important issue in the state, after jobs. Otherwise, the poll holds few surprises: California is reliably liberal on most issues, with President Barack Obama enjoying solid support.