Next month, France will hold elections for its National Assembly and the anti-mass migration Front National are set to make huge gains whilst newly elected President Emmanuel Macron may be forced into a coalition to govern.
Despite not winning the French presidency with their candidate Marine Le Pen, the Front National may still make huge gains in the French national assembly where they currently have only two deputies.
The anti-mass migration party’s presidential candidate won more than 50 per cent of the vote in 45 districts, and over 45 per cent in another 66 more giving the party the potential to pick up a large number of seats in next month’s legislative election, Ouest France reports.
In 13 districts, Le Pen scored more than 55 per cent of the vote leading many to believe the party will pick up seats in those areas at a minimum. The areas are all located in the north of France and the north-east like Calais, now considered the Front National stronghold.
Denys Pouillard, director of the Observatory of Political and Parliamentary Life, is even more optimistic saying the FN could collect as many as 50 seats in the National Assembly. Pouillard said he came to this conclusion by cross-referencing voting from the 2015 regional elections and the presidential vote.
Mr. Macron, though the winner of the presidential election on Sunday, could be facing an uphill battle next month as many doubt his new party, Le Republique En Marche!, will be able to form a majority in the National Assembly.
If Macron can not form a majority he may be forced to incorporate members of the establishment parties, which could severely limit his ability to govern domestically.
Whilst the president has the most power in the French system, the prime minister is largely in charge of implementing the president’s domestic policies.
Traditionally, the president and prime minister are of the same party. But when they are not, as was the case during the presidency of Jacques Chirac, the country has the potential to grind to a halt.
The French legislative election is a two round first past the post system where if a candidate gets more than 50 per cent there is only one round. If not, all candidates above 12.5 per cent go to a second round with the candidate who receives the most votes winning.
In current polls, Macron’s party stands at 36 per cent, with the Front National tied with the conservative Republicans at 22 per cent.
France, Harris poll:
EM+-ALDE: 26% ↑
FN-ENF: 22% ↑
LR+-EPP: 22% ↓
FI-LEFT: 13% ↑
EELV-G/EFA: 3% ↓… https://t.co/6cdgQeuj5n
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) May 8, 2017
The French legislative elections will be held on June 11th and June 18th.
Follow Chris Tomlinson on Twitter at @TomlinsonCJ or email at email@example.com