A Change Research poll released Tuesday shows Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with a double-digit lead over longtime frontrunner Joe Biden (D), besting him by a full ten points.
The poll – taken August 23-26, 2019, among 874 likely Democrat primary voters – showed survey respondents overwhelmingly choosing Warren as their first choice, with 29 percent support. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) came in second place with 22 percent support, and Biden fell to third place with just 19 percent support– a full ten points behind Warren.
Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) came in a distant fourth with nine percent support, followed by Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) with six percent support, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) with three percent support, and Beto O’Rourke (D) with three percent support. Andrew Yang (D), Julián Castro (D), and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) garnered two percent support each. The remaining candidates saw one percent support or less. The margin of error is/- 3.3 percent for the sample of Democrat voters:
#National Dem Primary:
Warren 29%
Sanders 22%
Biden 19%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 6%
Booker 3%
O'Rourke 3%
Yang 2%
Castro 2%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Steyer 1%
Williamson 1%
Delaney 0%
Bennet 0%
de Blasio 0%
Sestak 0%
Bullock 0%
Gillibrand 0%@ChangePolls 8/23-26— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 4, 2019
More via Change Research:
Biden leads among black Democratic primary voters with 35%, followed by Warren (20%) and Sanders (12%). Warren has the most support among white voters, at 32%, followed by Sanders (24%) and Biden (16%).
Sanders and Warren lead with 30% each among 18-34 year-old voters nationally, followed by Biden at 9%. Among 35-49 year old voters, Sanders leads with 35%, 10-points ahead of Warren and 23-points ahead of Biden. Warren and Biden are closest among 50-64 year old voters, with Warren at 33% of the vote, and Biden with 29%. The only age group in which Biden leads is among voters older than 65, with 33% of the vote, followed by Warren with 26%.
A Monmouth Poll released last month also showed Warren and Sanders up on Biden, both garnering 20 percent to Biden’s 19 percent. However, Monmouth University Poll director Patrick Murray released a statement shortly after, acknowledging that the poll was likely an outlier, considering the results of other national polls which showed Biden with a comfortable lead.
“As other national polls of 2020 Democratic presidential race have been released this week, it is clear that the Monmouth University Poll published Monday is an outlier,” Murray said.
“This is a product of the uncertainty that is inherent in the polling process,” he continued. “In the end, we must put out the numbers we have.”
“They should always be viewed in the context of what other polls are saying, not only as it applies to the horse race, but also for our understanding of the issues that motivate voters in their decision-making process,” he added:
Statement from poll director @PollsterPatrick
regarding this week's poll: [date corrected] pic.twitter.com/Xelpw1pt9j— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) August 28, 2019
A cluster of recently released national polls shows Biden continuing to lead the pack, with Warren surging right behind him.
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