A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday shows 48% of likely California voters favoring a recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and 52% opposed to his removal — a result within the poll’s 4% margin of error.
The poll, conducted August 6-12, also found that conservative talk radio host Larry Elder leads the 46-candidate field of contenders to replace Newsom, with 23% of the vote, ahead of real estate YouTuber Kevin Paffrath (13%), and 25% of voters undecided.
CBS News reported that Newsom’s fate may be determined by turnout, as Republicans are far more motivated to vote in the recall election than Democrats are:
Newsom’s political fate would clearly be in better shape if all registered voters turned out next month. But as of now, they don’t all plan to vote. In fact, it’s members of his own Democratic Party who are currently less motivated than Republicans to vote, setting up a high-stakes turnout and motivation contest for Newsom and the Democrats over the next month.
Even looking at it by 2020 presidential vote, those who voted for former President Donald Trump are more apt to say they’re “very motivated” to vote in this recall — by almost 20 points — than are those who backed President Biden.
The poll noted that while voters approve of Newsom’s job on the economy and the pandemic, they disapprove of his performance on crime and homelessness.
The CBS/YouGov poll is the third poll in recent weeks to show Newsom in danger of losing the recall. An Emerson College poll in early August also showed the recall vote within the margin of error; another poll showed Newsom losing by double digits.
Mail-in ballots began arriving at the homes of all registered voters in California this weekend. The ballot consists of two simple questions: first, whether Newsom should be recalled (yes/no); and second, which candidate should replace him.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of the recent e-book, Neither Free nor Fair: The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. His recent book, RED NOVEMBER, tells the story of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary from a conservative perspective. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.